Historically Accurate Model Reveals Who Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Election
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While many in the media want Americans to believe the 2020 election is all but over and Joe Biden will easily win the election, a model that has arguably the best track record of them all says President Donald Trump is in very good shape.
The primary model bases its predictions about the general election on turnout and patterns in the primaries.
It’s been around since 1996, and was retroactively applied to the primary data from every election since 1912 -- and it was only wrong twice.
That means this model looked at the primary data from every presidential election dating back to 1912 and it was only wrong about predicting the winner twice.
So who does the model think wins the 2020 election?
It currently shows Trump with a 91 percent chance of winning re-election.
The model has a laudable track record. Established in 1996 by Stony Brook University political science professor Helmut Norpoth, the Primary Model correctly picked the victors in multiple presidential elections — including the last one.
On March 7, 2016, it predicted then-candidate Donald Trump had an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Will the president also vanquish Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden?
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November. This model has picked the winner in all but two elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced, including, of course, Trump’s victory in 2016,” Mr. Norpoth tells Inside the Beltway in a statement.
Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has also correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912 when primaries were introduced."
The two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."
Here's the cherry on top: Norpoth suggested Trump will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes compared to the 304 votes he earned against Hillary Clinton in 2016.