According to all of the ‘mainstream’ polling, President Donald Trump has lost a lot of support among suburban women, a key voter demographic he’ll need to secure reelection.
It’s over for him, we’re told; women in the ‘burbs have had it with the vulgarity, the tweeting, the gruffness, the tweeting…you know the drill.
Only, is that really true?
We know polling was wildly off, and not by a little, in 2016. And this presidential election cycle we’re being asked to believe that a fading codger with a history of racial gaffes and a woman who was so unpopular she was one of the first to drop out of the Democratic presidential primaries are way ahead of President Trump.
Especially among women in the ‘burbs.
But a story by Newsweek that is being virtually ignored by the rest of the media certainly paints a much different light regarding Trump’s suburban support among women:
One Cincinnati family is keeping a close count of the political signs dotting the front yards of their suburban neighborhood. The signs supporting President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are of special interest to the father and son, who tally up the number of signs for each candidate while driving around their neighborhood and report the numbers to the mother.
With one week remaining until Election Day, suburban voters—particularly suburban women—are of special interest to both campaigns and could be a deciding factor in the presidential election. Trump has made countless pleas to suburban women this election cycle in an effort to retain their support, and while recent polling has suggested that the voting bloc is shifting toward Biden, the sign counts by Heidi Arvay’s family suggest otherwise.
Arvay, a mother of three children under age 15, told Newsweek that her husband and son’s latest tallies suggest that support for Trump far outweighs support for Biden.
“To sum it up, it’s at least 2-to-1, if not 3-to-1,” Arvay said of the signs. “In our kind of suburban area, it does not feel that there is a shift toward Biden in the mindset.”
She went on to tell the outlet that what is happening in 2020 feels like deja vu, circa 2016.
“It feels incorrect and it feels a little surreal,” she said.
Other Ohio women agree (and remember, we’ve been conditioned to believe Trump and Biden are neck-and-neck in a state Trump handily won four years ago).
“He didn’t feel supported then,” Arvay — who voted for Trump in 2016 but didn’t expect him to win — continued. “Right now, it feels very similar to what was in the air in 2016 from the media in terms of downplaying Trump’s support.”
Meanwhile, Sarah Fortin, a Cincinnati insurance agent with three small children, also views ‘polling’ showing Trump losing women in the suburbs skeptically.
“I’m wondering what cities they’re in. Because it doesn’t seem like they’re in my city,” she said.
And recall the president’s “law and order” message? Well, it’s resonating — with suburban women.
“As we’ve seen the past few months, what has happened around the country in those more liberal cities—it worries me as a mother,” Fortin said.
Angela Phillips, a second-generation business owner who works in manufacturing, notes, “I really feel like he understands what the country needs from an international standpoint. It’s long overdue that we refresh things like trade deals with foreign countries, and that we get more of a level playing field, I guess, for our businesses and for our country.”
More from Newsweek:
Another voter in Cincinnati who wished to remain anonymous said she initially was unsure about Trump but decided to vote for him in 2016 once he won the Republican presidential nomination. As someone who said she is a strong supporter of the military, advocates for keeping jobs in the U.S. and wants more religious freedom, her support for the president has only grown in the last four years.
“President Trump has done more for the religious freedom movement than any other president, certainly, in my lifetime,” she said, adding that she recently had yard signs stolen out of her yard and relations with some neighbors has become tense.
“I think there’s so many people that are being quiet because of the possible retaliation,” the woman said.
Now, the question becomes: Are Ohio suburban women who live outside a major urban center so much different than suburban women who live elsewhere?
We’re going to find out.