Recent polling data out of the toss up state of Michigan has election experts scratching their heads as they compare the data to the 2016 and 2020 elections. The media has not caught on to this data yet which suggests early signs of a potential bloodbath coming in a Trump-Biden 2024 matchup.
A survey commissioned by the Lansing-based consulting firm, Marketing Resource Group, reported by Detroit News, has shown that the former President is surging in the polls.
The poll revealed that 42% of respondents either plan to vote for Trump or lean toward him, while 35% expressed a preference for Biden. Of the 600 participants surveyed between October 2-8, approximately 20% stated they would vote for another candidate, and 3% showed no preference.
Jenell Leonard, the owner of Marketing Resource Group, commented on the results, stating, “It tells me that Biden has a problem, not necessarily the Democrats.”
In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Michigan emerged as a crucial battleground state. Trump secured a narrow victory in Michigan, garnering 2,279,543 votes or 47.5% of the total. This margin was just slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton, who received 2,268,839 votes. The slim difference between the two showed Michigan’s pivotal role in the largest national contest.
In the 2020 election, Michigan once again played a pivotal role as a key battleground state. Trump sought to maintain his foothold, but the state swung in favor of Joe Biden. Although the exact vote totals vary depending on the source, Biden won Michigan.
Looking ahead to 2024, Trump is the clear-cut favorite to win the GOP’s nomination. RealClearPolitics has Trump leading with a significant margin over other Republican contenders, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The RCP average has Trump around 57.8 and DeSantis in second at 12.8, a formidable lead.
In a Public Policy poll targeting Michigan’s Republican voters, Trump dominated with a significant lead as well.
In the race for the Presidency, Trump secured a commanding 63% support, overshadowing Ron DeSantis’ 13%. Nikki Haley trailed in third with 6%, and no other candidate surpassed the 3% mark. Both Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy had 3% support, followed by Doug Burgum and Mike Pence at 2%. Tim Scott and Asa Hutchinson barely make a mark with less than 1%.
A striking educational disparity is evident among Michigan’s Republican voters also. Trump garnered 81% support from those with a high school education, but this dropped to 36% among those with postgraduate degrees.
Regardless, Trump’s influence appears to be growing steadily.
Michigan 2024: Trump holds 50-point lead for Republican Nomination
• Trump — 63% (+50)
• DeSantis — 13%
• Haley — 6%
• Christie — 3%
• Ramaswamy — 3%
• Burgum — 2%
• Pence — 2%
• Hutchinson — 0%
• Scott — 0%@ppppolls (A-) | 430 LV | 10/9-10https://t.co/s3M8XJllv6 pic.twitter.com/ewxN6xna5a— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 11, 2023