'People Are Going To Be Shocked'; Here's Why The Theory Of The 'Shy Trump Voter' Is Legit, And Why The Media Doesn't See It Coming
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For years, the media has called Trump voters racist, bigots, homophobes, scum, basket of deplorable.
They say black Trump supporters are "coons, sell-outs, Uncle Toms, race-traitors".
Trump voters have been fired from jobs, doxed by reporters, and run out of town just because they support the President of the United States.
Considering these facts, why would the media think a majority of Trump voters would share their true opinion about their choice for President?
This argument is laid out perfectly a new article from Politico. They sat down with two different pollsters who were far more accurate than every other pollster when it came to the outcome of the 2016 election.
Although many of us conservatives tout the "shy Trump voter" narrative, these two pollsters reveal WHY it actually exists.
First of all, they predict Biden will win the popular vote, but Trump will capture the electoral college:
This year, both men believe that polls could again be undercounting Trump’s support. The reason is “shy” Trump voters—people reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged. Though the “shy voter” idea is thrown around a lot by both Trump supporters and Democratic skeptics, Kapteyn and Cahaly have specific insights into why, and how, Trump support might be going undetected.
For Cahaly, those votes are likely to make the difference again. “There’s a lot of hidden Trump votes out there,” he says. “Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably. I’m not even debating that. But I think Trump is likely to have an Electoral College victory.”
Next up, they talk about why these mainstream polls are completely flawed:
Robert Cahaly, the Trafalgar Group: Well first, we don’t do national polls, and that’s for the same reason I don’t keep up with hits in a baseball game: It’s an irrelevant statistic. But the battleground-state polls are a little closer [than the national polls], and there’s a lot at play. People are going to be shocked. A lot of people are going to vote this year who have been dormant or low-propensity voters. I think it’s going to be at an all-time high.
The models of who’s going to turn out this year are very flawed. What type of person comes out for Trump? They’re not a normal election participant. They’re a low-propensity voter. We included them in all of our surveys in fall 2016, and we are including them now.
Next, they discuss why pollsters have NOT learned their lessons from 2016:
Relying on live callers for polls is especially bad in this modern era, where “social desirability bias” is in full play. People avoid awkward conversations. So when a person you don’t know calls and asks how you feel about Donald Trump—and you don’t know how they feel—you tend to give them an answer that you think will make them look at you in the best light. We’ve seen it year after year, and I think it is very much at play this year.
Polls are undercounting the people who don’t want to give their real opinions. If they had corrected anything, why didn’t they see Ron DeSantis winning in his 2018 race for governor in Florida? They made the exact same mistake with his opponent, Andrew Gillum. [The final RealClearPolitics polling average in that race had Gillum up by 3.6 percentage points. DeSantis won by 0.4 percentage points.] This wasn’t some random state’s race; this was the hottest, meanest—neck-and-neck races for governor and senator in Florida in an off-year election. Every single major player was polling that state. And 100 percent of them got it wrong; we got it right.
They also discuss why it's so hard for many Trump supporters to express their true opinion:
Cahaly: I believe it was prevalent. In 2016, the worst being said about Trump voters is that they were “deplorable.” 2020 is a whole different ballgame. It is worse this time—significantly worse. This year had more things where you can get punished for expressing an opinion outside the mainstream than almost any year I can think of in modern history.
I’m finding that people are very hesitant [to share their preference for Trump], because now it’s not just being called “deplorable.” It’s people getting beat up for wearing the wrong hat, people getting harassed for having a sticker on their car. People just do not want to say anything.
The article goes on to discuss more fascinating topics. You can read the full piece here.
I think we're about to see a historic turnout for President Trump on November 3rd, and the mainstream media will be shocked to their core.