This is the nightmare scenario for House Speaker and California Rep. Nancy Pelosi and her nightmare looks like it could come to fruition.
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Republicans won every single race for the House that was considered a “toss-up,” a total of 27, and not one Republican lost reelection in what was supposed to be a “blue wave” year for Democrats.
And because of that, when it comes time to vote for a new Speaker of The House in January, a small number of House Democrats missing for whatever reason could lead to a Republican being elected Speaker.
The Hill reported:
As Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) seeks the support to keep the gavel for another term, her allies are keeping close watch on a potential wild card that could complicate her path next month: COVID-19.
Pelosi is already facing a much slimmer majority in the next Congress, after Democrats were clobbered at the polls in November, meaning she can afford far fewer Democratic defections than the 15 who opposed her two years ago. And lawmakers must be present on the House floor to cast their vote for Speaker, precluding the option for members to vote remotely, as many have done throughout the pandemic.
The combination of factors creates the chance that Democrats could face a dilemma on Jan. 3 in which Pelosi locks up the Democratic support to remain Speaker, but coronavirus concerns — illnesses, quarantines or otherwise — prevent a sufficient number of them from being in the Capitol to log their votes.
A failure of Pelosi to secure support from half the voting members would, at the very least, throw the process into chaos. In the Democrats’ nightmare scenario, the math could tilt so far in the Republicans’ favor that it yields a GOP Speaker.
That would be a nightmare for Speaker Pelosi and the Democrats but it would be a cause for celebration for the Republicans.
“Let’s say, just theoretically, we had six or eight people out with Covid and the Republicans have none. They probably could elect [Kevin] McCarthy,” Democrat Kentucky Rep. John Yarmuth said of the House Minority Leader becoming Speaker.
How possible is that scenario? Well, this week five House members tested positive for the virus, which brings the total number of lawmakers stricken with the disease to at least 35 since the start of the pandemic.
Democrats fear that it would be some type of holiday season outbreak, and not detractors from her own Party, that could cost her the Speakership, though she will likely face opposition from some more progressive members like New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who have called for new leadership in the Party.
“We’re in a health care crisis, right? No one can get sick. That’s the X-factor here,” a House Democrat, said to be a Pelosi ally, said about it. “We need everyone to be healthy. … That’s the big fear.”
That would be one of the greatest things to happen in this election season. Being able to laugh at Democrats who would have the majority in the House but be thwarted because they could not keep the Speakership. But we do not want to have that happen at the expense of lawmakers contracting the virus.
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It would be better if she were defeated by her fellow Democrats.
